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北京大学经济学院 刘冲助理教授:The Impact of the Three Gorges Dam:Differentiated Adaptations of Rural Households to Local Climate Change

2019-07-01

主题The Impact of the Three Gorges DamDifferentiated Adaptations of Rural Households to Local Climate Change(三峡大坝的影响:农村家庭对于当地气候变化的不同适应)

主讲人北京大学经济学院  刘冲助理教授

主持人体育外围网站  李蒙副教授

时间201952712:00-13:10

地点柳林校区格致楼811

主办单位:体育外围网站  科研处

主讲人简介:

刘冲,于北京大学获经济学博士,曾在清华大学经济管理学院博士后工作站和世界银行工作,现任北京大学经济学院助理教授。研究领域是公共经济学和发展经济学,近年来在Economic Journal, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Economics Letters,《经济研究》《管理世界》《经济学(季刊)》《世界经济》《金融研究》等国际国内著名期刊发表论文20多篇;并且先后主持国家自然科学基金、农业部农村经济研究中心研究基金等多项科研课题。

内容提要:

Using the precipitation decline in downstream induced by the initial impoundment of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam in 2003 as a natural experiment, we identify differentiated patterns of adaptations to climate change by rural households’ initial endowments. Using gridded-monthly data and a difference-in-differences design, we confirm persistent decrease in spring precipitation in downstream of the dam, which is a hypothesis raised by previous hydrological studies. We further show that the decrease in precipitation leads to a 14 percent reduction in the yields of rice using a panel of over 40,000 rural households (1989-2014). In response to the continuous reduction in crop yields, small and subsistence-oriented farmers increase rice cropping area to maintain total output. In contrast, large and market-oriented farmers choose to migrate and find opportunities from less affected regions.